When the Victorian government announced its plans last year to raise the age of criminal responsibility from 10 to 14, it was a signature Daniel Andrews move — bold, progressive, and tackling a politically dangerous issue.
In the year since state cabinet approved the decision, three innocent people have allegedly been killed in incidents involving young people in Victoria.
The most recent was on Sunday — when 19-year-old Davide Pollina was killed in a collision with an allegedly stolen car in Melbourne's north.
Police said the two occupants of the car fled. A 16-year-old boy was arrested a short time later. It's alleged he was a passenger in the car.
In July, a 28-year-old man was tragically killed after allegedly being hit by a stolen vehicle driven by a teenager — who breached bail within 48 hours of being arrested.
In January, 33-year-old doctor Ash Gordon was fatally stabbed following a confrontation with two teenagers who allegedly broke into his house in Doncaster.
In all three cases, the alleged offenders are youths, but not young — aged 16 and 17.
But with the state in the grip of a spike in violent youth crime, that hardly seems to matter.
This week, Victoria's upper house will debate the government's youth justice bill, which would cement the first step of Daniel Andrews's plan by raising the age of criminal responsibility from 10 to 12.
But the next stage — raising the age from 12 to 14 in 2027 — has now been abandoned by the government, drawing condemnation from a broad range of legal groups.
'We're getting smashed on it': Labor MPs voice concerns over policy
Labor MPs have been openly voicing deep concern over community perceptions of crime for months.
In July, Police Minister Anthony Carbines conceded to The Age: "At 14, there are more serious offenders causing more serious crimes, and that's why there's a far longer lead time the government has put on that.
"The jury's out on whether we'll be able to demonstrate that, but it remains our commitment at this time."
But as one senior Labor figure told the ABC: "There's no way we're doing it. We're getting smashed on it."
And so it was that on Sunday — the day of the most recent death, and in the week Victoria's upper house is due to debate the bill that would raise the age to 12 — Andrews's successor Jacinta Allan was refusing to commit.
"I am not going to be drawn on what further changes the government may be considering," she said.
"There is a pattern of behaviour here that is causing harm and it's also causing me, and so many in the community, concern. We know we need to do more."
On Monday, she was evasive once again.
"We're having discussions … with Victoria Police, the courts, and the youth justice sector about what more we need to do," Allan said.
"I'm not going to pre-empt any discussions we're having as a cabinet or with colleagues. We are open to considering all options that are available to us."
Finally, on Tuesday, the premier fronted journalists to announce she would break the promise made by her predecessor.
"Twelve is where it [the criminal age of responsibility] will stay," she said.
"This decision has been made at a different time, by a different government, with a different premier."
Victoria pledges to go it alone on raising the age
In hindsight, it's not hard to see why Andrews went big on the age of responsibility. He first flagged the idea in February 2023, just three months after a landslide election win (and seven months before his surprise retirement).
At the time, there was a push for a national consensus between the states and the Commonwealth on raising the age to 14, but it was faltering.
As the nation's most senior premier, in its most progressive state, Andrews characteristically decided Victoria would go it alone.
Youth justice advocates from the Law Institute to the Victorian Aboriginal Legal Service (VALS) strongly backed the move.
The dumping of phase two of the plan is not the first time Victorian Labor's progressive ambitions on youth justice reform have been mugged by political reality.
In October last year — one month after a 14-year-old boy was abducted and attacked walking home from school — the government pulled the youth elements out of its bail reform legislation.
At the time, Attorney-General Jaclyn Symes acknowledged "public perceptions of a youth crime crisis" influenced the decision.
Instead of the planned change to a presumption of bail for all but the most serious youth offenders, it instead announced trials of ankle bracelets in March this year.
Government faces criticism from both sides of youth justice debate
The response from some legal groups to the government's decision on Tuesday to walk away from its promise to raise the age of criminal responsibility to 14 has been thunderous.
The VALS said the demonstration of "weak leadership and regressive decision making" demonstrated that the Victorian government wrote its promises "in the sand".
Its CEO, Yorta Yorta and Narrandjeri woman Nerita Waight, said it was "devastating" to see "hundreds of hours" of work on the reforms abandoned in the face of media scare campaigns over youth crime.
"We trusted the Victorian government and we have been betrayed by their treacherous decision to abandon our children," Ms Waight said.
"It will be very hard for Aboriginal communities to trust this government now that we know she [Premier Jacinta Allan] will ditch their commitments."
Victoria Police, on the other hand, has always opposed raising the age to 14.
"Because of the seriousness of offending — the levels of offending that we see with 12 and 13-year-olds involved in some really, really significant crimes — [raising the age to 14 is] not something I would support," Commissioner Shane Patton told Channel Seven in March.
Law and order is tough for governments, particularly Labor governments. Youth justice especially so.
In Queensland, a select cross-party committee fell apart amid bickering over how to manage the issue.
Victoria has a statistically lower rate of youth crime than all other jurisdictions except SA and the ACT, and a youth crime rate that was actually falling in the years before the pandemic.
But since then, not only have crime rates spiked, there's been a change in the type of crime being committed by young offenders — towards more crimes against the person — the kind of crime that goes the heart of community safety.
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